What advice can I offer? Maintain your health, pursue your career, and, if you can, regularly put some money aside that will help you realize important projects.
Happy birthday hon. It’s a dark winter for many of us. My son is fighting in Gaza at the moment. I appreciate your strong support for Israel. And your writing. It’s deeply personal and informative too. Feel better soon.
Happy birthday and great piece David. I see most things much the same way.
I’m not optimistic about the next decade either. American leadership is being tested, and as you pointed out, American leadership is not what it used to be. But I’ll give you 2 reasons to be less pessimistic
1) the nature of modern media and instant global communication amplifies the ugly stuff, makes things appear worse than they really are, at least to those of us who grew up before the massive shift.
2) the world is so interconnected today, its hard for me to see a true hot world war unfolding. Russia doesn’t have the balls to really take on the West without a lot of help. They can corrupt us and change world order that way. But not militarily. And China’s export economy makes a world war against all the West also a war against all their customers. They are a threat long term but I think the world is taking their threat more seriously since Trump, one of the few good things he did imo. They literally cannot afford world war. And, neither can we really, the whole global electronics manufacturing economy would collapse. So that strangely acts as a stabilizing force against hot war. But it also encourages all sorts of sub-war fuckery. My $0.02 anyway
Btw, Jules Evans writes a great Substack on emerging psychedelic therapy and how its getting all fucked up already by greed, guru power trips and institutionalization.
1) How do you suppose things - at least in a global, foreign policy sense - are not as bad as they look?
2) A hot world war seems to be already unfolding. Russia is taking on the West - that's what it's doing with Ukraine right now. And that's what it's doing with pumping so much hate and disinformation into our culture as well as messing with our elections. And they're getting help - from Iran in particular but they're also allied with China.
I used to think that our interconnected economic ties would keep China as a non-threat militarily. Now I'm not so sure. And while they may not attack us directly, they certainly could our allies like Russia and Iran are doing now.
2) I think we are seeing *hybrid* world war, rather than hot or total world war. Russia leads the hybrid war against the West and cannot realistically engage in direct fighting with the Us and NATO despite their saber rattling. So they push every other button they can to change the world order, especially our elections. They push money and weapons to Iran who funnels it to the worst sorts of terrorists. But none of that is truly threatening to the West (aside from horrific terrorist attacks of course)
So it all hinges on China, as they are they are the only power that seems able to realistically take on the West military-wise in a hot conflict. And if they do, they break their own economy.
So, its that dynamic that makes me feel slightly less queasy. Maybe I’m overstating it, but seems legit to me. The biggest threat is internal imo. If we are corrupted, end up in civil war or such epic dysfunction we cannot protect ourselves, we no longer uphold the world order and shit falls apart,
Milestones are triggering, if you ask me. An unconscious reevaluation. Im 46. I took 40 very seriously. I am happy that I decided to take myself more seriously and other people less seriously, weigh my life experience and my achievements (I would have said I didn’t have any) demand to be taken more seriously. I thought 40 was my first taste of being old; at 46 I think 40 and until now are probably last licks of being young. Maybe someone older has more insight.
Happy Belated 40th, Dave! For me, that birthday was, mostly, a day like any other.: I showed up for work--and any special shared meal (or activity) were fit in to what my upcoming days off could allow. The reassuring part was the major life project that I was then implementing with my fiancée.
What advice can I offer? Maintain your health, pursue your career, and, if you can, regularly put some money aside that will help you realize important projects.
Happy birthday hon. It’s a dark winter for many of us. My son is fighting in Gaza at the moment. I appreciate your strong support for Israel. And your writing. It’s deeply personal and informative too. Feel better soon.
I really appreciate your kindness and encouragement. Thank you for your son’s courage.
Starting to feel better today. Here’s hoping it continues.
I like John Bolton too.
Happy birthday and great piece David. I see most things much the same way.
I’m not optimistic about the next decade either. American leadership is being tested, and as you pointed out, American leadership is not what it used to be. But I’ll give you 2 reasons to be less pessimistic
1) the nature of modern media and instant global communication amplifies the ugly stuff, makes things appear worse than they really are, at least to those of us who grew up before the massive shift.
2) the world is so interconnected today, its hard for me to see a true hot world war unfolding. Russia doesn’t have the balls to really take on the West without a lot of help. They can corrupt us and change world order that way. But not militarily. And China’s export economy makes a world war against all the West also a war against all their customers. They are a threat long term but I think the world is taking their threat more seriously since Trump, one of the few good things he did imo. They literally cannot afford world war. And, neither can we really, the whole global electronics manufacturing economy would collapse. So that strangely acts as a stabilizing force against hot war. But it also encourages all sorts of sub-war fuckery. My $0.02 anyway
Btw, Jules Evans writes a great Substack on emerging psychedelic therapy and how its getting all fucked up already by greed, guru power trips and institutionalization.
https://www.ecstaticintegration.org/
Thanks for your thoughts Ed.
1) How do you suppose things - at least in a global, foreign policy sense - are not as bad as they look?
2) A hot world war seems to be already unfolding. Russia is taking on the West - that's what it's doing with Ukraine right now. And that's what it's doing with pumping so much hate and disinformation into our culture as well as messing with our elections. And they're getting help - from Iran in particular but they're also allied with China.
I used to think that our interconnected economic ties would keep China as a non-threat militarily. Now I'm not so sure. And while they may not attack us directly, they certainly could our allies like Russia and Iran are doing now.
3. Thanks for the tip! Subscribed.
1) got me there. It is a hot mess. But see #2.
2) I think we are seeing *hybrid* world war, rather than hot or total world war. Russia leads the hybrid war against the West and cannot realistically engage in direct fighting with the Us and NATO despite their saber rattling. So they push every other button they can to change the world order, especially our elections. They push money and weapons to Iran who funnels it to the worst sorts of terrorists. But none of that is truly threatening to the West (aside from horrific terrorist attacks of course)
So it all hinges on China, as they are they are the only power that seems able to realistically take on the West military-wise in a hot conflict. And if they do, they break their own economy.
So, its that dynamic that makes me feel slightly less queasy. Maybe I’m overstating it, but seems legit to me. The biggest threat is internal imo. If we are corrupted, end up in civil war or such epic dysfunction we cannot protect ourselves, we no longer uphold the world order and shit falls apart,
Cheers
Milestones are triggering, if you ask me. An unconscious reevaluation. Im 46. I took 40 very seriously. I am happy that I decided to take myself more seriously and other people less seriously, weigh my life experience and my achievements (I would have said I didn’t have any) demand to be taken more seriously. I thought 40 was my first taste of being old; at 46 I think 40 and until now are probably last licks of being young. Maybe someone older has more insight.
Happy 40th David. Blessings to you and your family.
Thank you for your support. It means a lot.